Tag Archives: Decision making

Early Birds Make the Best Decisions

Board Meeting.

Image via Wikipedia

A fascinating piece by John Tierney in the NY Times explored the concept of “Decision Fatigue,” concluding that people faced with making a number of decisions do so less well as the day wears on.

In studies with Roy Baumeister, a clear correlation was shown between the quality of decisions made at a point in time and the number/difficulty of decisions subjects had been required to make beforehand.

These studies explain the anomalies in, for example, parole being granted to prisoners by a parole board – those whose applications were heard at the start of the day, or immediately following a break for nourishment, were considerably more likely to succeed that those whose applications were heard at the end of a session, or just before a break.

Car salesmen were able to increase the value of the options taken with vehicles simply by altering the order in which the options were presented: once decision fatigue started to come into play, the buyers were more inclined to simply go with the recommended/default choice, even when it was more expensive and, potentially, less suitable for their needs.

Supermarkets have long had their ‘impulse racks’ at the checkout counters, but the real reasons these work has only recently been understood – shoppers are fatigued from all the decision-making during the shopping process and so are less able to rationally decide against a tempting treat when this is put in front of them.

What transpires from the studies is that the process of decision making depletes glucose levels in the brain and that this affects the way the brain works. In essence, some areas of the brain will work better for longer: the reward centre area continues to function well, while that controlling impulses weakens. So, our buyer who has been through a number of decisions in deciding on options for the new car will look at fewer and fewer factors in coming to a decision and be more prone to impulse – for example, “those leather seats look great.”

Interestingly, it was shown that replenishment of the glucose levels quickly restored decision-making ability, so if our buyer chewed on some sweets during the process he/she might well save some money. Of course, using sweet substances for instant glucose replenishment is just a temporary solution as the glucose derived from sugar is quickly used up – that from complex carbohydrates and proteins providing a steadier supply over time – but it certainly can help in tough situations.

If you need a decision from your boss, choose your time carefully, and maybe soften him/her up with a piece of chocolate at the start of the meeting so the glucose can be absorbed before asking for a decision, unless of course the decision you want is one that does not require change to an existing situation – in which case low glucose levels will favour the status quo.

The bottom line seems to be that you should make your biggest decisions at the start of the day (assuming you have breakfast, of course!) or after a healthy meal. In board and management meetings where there are many decisions to be taken, ensure the participants are suitably nourished and their glucose levels are maintained. As the article recommended – don’t make decisions on restructuring the business at 4pm…

 

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Analyse This!

‘Analysis Paralysis’ is often cited as a reason for businesses failing to achieve their potential – too much time spent analysing an opportunity (or problem) with the result that the window closes and nothing is achieved. In fact, much has been written about this, with Google, alone, returning over half a million pages!

The problem is that many in business – particularly the more entrepreneurially-minded – use this syndrome as an excuse not to analyse anything, relying instead on ‘gut feel’ for all decisions.

However, analysis is a critical part of achieving maximum success in a business and there are many areas where this can be automated to a large extent, too.

One often-overlooked area of a business – because it is nowhere near as glamorous as Sales in many eyes – is Credit Control (also referred to as the Debtors’ or Accounts Receivable Department, depending on where you are in the world). And yet, it’s an area that can have a huge impact on the overall health of a company, and one where analysis should play an important role.

In the years BCC (Before Credit Crunch), of course, many companies effectively outsourced much of the decision-making to Credit Insurers, who would determine appropriate account limits for customers, and would chase up for the longer-overdue debt once it was reported to them. The company was paid out either way – by the customer or the insurer – so was less concerned.

This, of course, has all changed.

Credit Insurers are now a lot more careful with their level of risk and companies are having to re-evaluate their approach: do they accept lower credit limits and a consequent restriction to their business, or do they ‘self insure’ to maximise their opportunities?

By analysing their customers’ payment patterns over time, companies will develop a much better understanding of their customers, being better able to assign appropriate credit limits, while also developing an early-warning system of impending trouble.

What’s more, utilising this information in cash-flow forecasts will provide a far more accurate picture of expected income for a given period than the ‘rule of thumb’ that so many companies seem to still use. And, of course, this should feed through to enable companies to give accurate information to their creditors as to payments due, and take maximum advantage of any early-settlement discounts that may be available.

It all comes down to understanding your business more thoroughly. If nothing else, the economic conditions of the past couple of years should encourage businesses to pay a lot more attention to the fundamentals, and that will be good for everyone going forward.

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